The results found that the current a second-tier city real estate market: the situation is serious,the road is tortuous,price is inevitable. Pick out a few key points,to share with you.As of 2011 12 at the end of 10,China is a typical city of newly built commercial housing stock is high up to 59980000 square meters,compared with the same period last year,the new 16900000 square storage quantity,growth of about 39. In 22%,compared with last month 4 new. 5%,inventories remain high. The first-tier cities,Guangzhou,in Shanghai,Beijing increase obviously,the average rate of increase than the same period last year increased by nearly 50 percent or so. In the second city,Hangzhou inventory volume reached 3430000 square meters,up 92 year-on-year growth. In 5%,a typical eastern city increase for the first. Inventory continues to grow,reflect the end market is still in the doldrums,although most of the cityHouse pricesTo some extent,some developers have started,discount promotions,but still difficult to promote property overall warmer.As of 2011 12 at the end of 10 typical city,new commercial housing sales ratio of 14. 4,once again hit nearly two years to come is new tall,the typical city of newly built commercial housing sales ratio has 2 consecutive months in large range. Fig 6 the data shows,since 2011,residential sales than the overall showing a rapid increase trend,especially near the end of the year during,although house price chain rose began to decline,but the ?buy or not to buy up? psychology drive,many property buyers to choose cash-house.Long term supply of goods,Fang Xinzeng is the impact of commodity Fang Cun pins than changes in one of the decisive factors. Commercial housing construction area and the new area of work is the reflection of a period of time in the future commercial housing supply main index,therefore,commercial housing construction area and the new construction area will have on the future Fang Cun pin than changes to produce certain effect. This report to commercial housing new construction area and sale area ratio,housing construction area and sale area ratio of two indicators,to reflect the real estate supply demand relations,in the current market conditions,the ratio is higher,the market is begged for be more than,the ratio is small,the market demands exceeds supply.From the new construction area,the 2011 1-11 month,real estate development enterprises newly started a total area of 17. 500000000 square meters,an increase of 20. 5%,despite the increase than last year considerably fall after a rise,but still slightly higher than the nearly ten years the average growth rate. And from the area,the 2011 1-11 month,real estate development enterprises and construction of a total area of 37. 600000000 square meters,an increase of 26. 0%,increase in historical perch. Visible,although in last of regulatory policy,the property market in the long-term downturn,some developers lack confidence in the market,some projects delayed construction,but on the whole,at this stage of the real estate development enterprises new construction area and the construction area are still at historic highs,therefore,the future of 1-1. In 5 years,commercial housing supply still maintain a larger supply.From the commercial housing sales,2011 1-11 month,the national commercial housing sales area of 859530000 square meters,an increase of 8. In 5%,1-10 decreased by 1 compared with june. 5 percent,significantly lower than the nearly ten years of commercial housing sales average amplitude,and still appears piece continuously the posture of fall after a rise.From the commercial housing supply demand relations,2011 1-11 month,the national commercial housing new construction area and sale area ratio of 1. In 95,construction area and sale area ratio of 4. 20,ratio and 2008?s level,visible at present commodity house market is in apparent oversupply situation. In the central government?s adherence to the policy does not relax the case is expected next year,the supply and demand trend will continue,this means that in the construction of a large inventory,which will push up the future sale of residentialScale,at least the first half of 2012 the majority of city residential sales will be higher than.Inventory development trendIn 2012 one quarter of the market will continue to adjust the depth ofAlthough the developers in the late 2011 accelerated pusher plate and increase the discount promotion efforts,but did not lead the turnover rose,December,10 typical city commercial housing turnover year-on-year decline 47%,reflecting the market demand is still weak. By the impact of the Spring Festival holiday,property buyers enthusiasm will be a step decrease,1-2 month is the property of the traditional off-season,the turnover to rise significantly; in addition,the commodity housing supply and demand than rising situation,buyers wait-and-see mood is still strong. Therefore,expected quarter residential turnover will continue to linger in the bottom,the property market will continue to adjust the depth of.The first half of 2012 will further increase ratio of storage and salesDecemberThe central economic working conferenceClear: to adhere to the policy of estate adjusting control not to shake,promote the prices reasonable return,accelerate the ordinary commodity housing construction,increase effective supply,to promote the healthy development of real estate market. In December 23rdHousing construction departmentMinisterJiang WeixinRemarks: continue to adhere to the real estate regulation does not shake,promote the healthy development of real estate market,the real estate industry in 2012 will continue the show from the main tone,it will bring the real estate development enterprises more severe test. Therefore,funding issues more prominent developers have to vigorously push,with period the rapid withdrawal from circulation of funds,therefore,the first half of 2012 is expected to supply will also further increase; but on the other hand,the purchase of a continuation of the policy will further squeezeInvestmentSpeculative demand,the rigid demand market will become more rational,is expected in the first half of the year turnover will continue in the doldrums. The above two factors,the first half of 2012 commercial housing sales ratio will also be further elevated.The second half of 2012 sales than would be expected to fallFrom the four quarter of 2011,the real estate regulation policy bottom has appeared,therefore,regulatory policy was not further increased in 2012,just a little relaxation,expected in the middle of the began to gradually relax. On one hand,in 2012 the domestic and international economic situation is complex and austere,Chinese economy has very big uncertainty,if declines faster than expected,it will naturally relax on the important pillar industry,the real estate market regulation; on the other hand,2012 house prices will continue to fall,especially continued to decline during the second half of the year,will tend to be more remarkable control effect target of adjusting control of,close,will have a relaxing regulation basis and conditions. However,this policy of estate adjusting control relaxation will be local,small,slow,difficult to appear in 2008 four quarter relaxation strength.Expected with the real estate regulation policy gradually relaxed,especially in the middle of 2012,regulation and control policy is expected to appear obvious changes,by the long-term suppression of the speculative and investment demand is expected to number into the city,rigid demand will choose machine hand,market demand for the release will drive the property market recovery. The effect of turnover rose sharply,as well as new construction area growth continued to fall,is expected in 2012 second half of the year,new commercial housing sales than expected to drop.
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